Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of federal civilian employment growth across all of Kentucky's 120 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.

Here in this Kentucky Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the federal civilian employment growth of Kentucky's 120 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.

This figure displays the 120 counties of Kentucky as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the federal civilian employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).

This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term federal civilian employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -0.99%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -0.99% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-0.99%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 66 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 54 counties fell below.

Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 61 counties whose most recent (2022) federal civilian employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-1.16%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 59 counties whose federal civilian employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.

Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 120 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -0.99% over 2010-2022 and -1.16% over 2022:

Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual federal civilian employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-0.99%) and near-term (-1.16%).

Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.99%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Kentucky average (-1.16%).

Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-0.99%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-1.16%) statewide.

Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual federal civilian employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-0.99%) and near-term (-1.16%).

Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Kentucky counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Kentucky's average annual federal civilian employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.99%) as well as near-term (2022 = -1.16%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.

Of Kentucky's 120 counties, 39 (33%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:

This figure depicts the distribution of the 27 Kentucky counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.99%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = -1.16%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.

Observe that 27 (23%) of Kentucky's 120 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:

This figure shows the distribution of the 22 Kentucky counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual federal civilian employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.99%), while they outpaced Kentucky's average near-term (2022 = -1.16%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.

Of Kentucky's 120 counties, 18% (22) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:

This figure depicts the distributions of the 32 Kentucky counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual federal civilian employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.99%) as well as near-term (2022 = -1.16%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual federal civilian employment growth rate over 2010-2022.

27% of Kentucky's counties, 32 of 120, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include: