Magoffin County vs. Kentucky Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Magoffin County: 2022 Population = 11,357 2022 Percent of State = 0.25% Kentucky: 2022 Population = 4,512,310 2022 Percent of U.S. = 1.35% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Magoffin County with comparisons to Kentucky and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Magoffin County vs. Kentucky's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Magoffin County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Magoffin County's population rose from 10,505 in 1969 to 11,357 in 2022, for a net gain of 852, or 8.11%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Kentucky's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Kentucky's population rose from 3,198,000 in 1969 to 4,512,310 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,314,310, or 41.10%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Magoffin County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Kentucky, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Magoffin County's overall population growth was 8.11% over 1969-2022 trailed Kentucky's increase of 41.10%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Kentucky Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Magoffin County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Kentucky's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Kentucky's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Magoffin County's population totaled 0.33% of Kentucky's population, while in 2022 it equated to 0.25% thereby yielding a -0.08% share-shift.
Magoffin County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Magoffin County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Magoffin County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.16% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1975 (6.18%) and posted its lowest growth in 1987 (-2.53%). In 2022, Magoffin County's population declined by -1.04% Magoffin County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Magoffin County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Magoffin County's annual population growth rate averaged 2.38%. It averaged -0.17% during the 1980s, 0.29% during the 1990s, -0.05% during the 2000s, -1.21% during the 2010s, -1.27% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Magoffin County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Kentucky and the nation. As the chart reveals, Magoffin County's average annual population growth outpaced Kentucky's average throughout the 1970s (2.38% vs. 1.31%), trailed Kentucky's average in the 1980s (-0.17% vs. 0.09%), recorded under Kentucky's average throughout the 1990s (0.29% vs. 0.89%), amounted to less than Kentucky's average during the 2000s (-0.05% vs. 0.72%), posted below Kentucky's average throughout the 2010s (-1.21% vs. 0.41%), and trailed Kentucky's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-1.27% vs. 0.10%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Magoffin County outperformed the nation throughout the 1970s (2.38% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation over the 1980s (-0.17% vs. 0.95%), trailed the nation in the 1990s (0.29% vs. 1.23%), fell below the nation throughout the 2000s (-0.05% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation throughout the 2010s (-1.21% vs. 0.74%), and trailed the nation over 2020-2022 (-1.27% vs. 0.31%).
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