The United States economy has generated an impressive number of jobs since the 1970s. The contrast between the nation's vigorous employment growth and the modest performance of other major industrial countries is striking. Despite this rosy track record, the real (inflation adjusted) wages and salaries of many workers have stagnated or slipped in recent years. This development has provoked concerns about the quality of new jobs. Structural shifts in the composition of employment--from high-wage goods-producing to low-wage services-related sectors--is the culprit most often cited for the deteriorating quality of jobs.

Regions vary greatly in the make-up of their labor force, in their industry composition of employment, and their economic experience. Reviewing and examining recent developments in average earnings per job in Harlan County with comparisons to Kentucky and the nation is an important first step in understanding the economic forces at play in Harlan County.

Discussion: Average Annual Earnings Per Job are computed by dividing BEA total industry earnings estimates by the BEA total full- and part-time jobs estimates. No convenient or adequate means exist at the county or regional level for converting the job estimates to a full-time equivalent measure. So, interpret the average earnings per job estimates with caution in consideration of the following issues:

Average earnings per job within industries involving more part-time work is lower than industries involving more full-time work, although there could be little difference in the underlying wage of full-time workers. Such differences could also prevail between counties and regions. An increase in the proportion of part-time jobs over time may erode average earnings per job estimates, although full-time earnings per worker may have remained unchanged.

As with per capita income, average earnings per job may be subject to extreme short-run variation, especially in smaller counties. Major construction projects relating to building dams, nuclear power plants, and private plant construction projects have caused extreme fluctuations in many smaller counties. Such changes typify both small and large agriculture-dependent counties owing to the extreme annual variations in farm incomes. Also, Since average earnings per job are just a simple average, it does not account for variations in the distribution of earnings among high- vs. low-wage jobs.

Figure 1 depicts Harlan County's annual average earnings per job over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Harlan County over time.

When measured in current dollars, Harlan County's average earnings per job increased 578.39%, from $6,856 in 1970 to $46,512 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 15.55%, from $34,687 in 1970 to $40,082 in 2022.

Figure 2 tracks Harlan County's and Kentucky's annual real average earnings per job for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real average earnings per job patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Harlan County's real average earnings per job rose from $33,205 in 1969 to $40,082 in 2022, for a net gain of $6,877, or 20.71%. In comparison, Kentucky's real average earnings per job increased from $31,499 in 1969 to $51,168 in 2022, for a net advance of $19,669, or 62.45%.

Figure 3 portrays Harlan County's real average earnings per job growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Kentucky, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real average earnings per job in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real average earnings per jobs in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real average earnings per job growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.

Harlan County's overall real average earnings per job growth was 20.71% over 1969-2022 trailed Kentucky's increase of 62.45%, and fell below the United States' increase of 62.26%.

Figure 4 portrays the trends for average earnings per job relative to the national average by tracing Harlan County and Kentucky average earnings per job as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022.

In 1969, Harlan County's average earnings per job amounted to 87.34% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 64.97%. Similarly, in 1969, Kentucky's average earnings per job totaled 82.85% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 82.94%.

Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Harlan County's real average earnings per job growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.

On average, Harlan County's real average earnings per job grew at an annual rate of 0.43% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1975 (8.49%) and posted its lowest growth in 1985 (-8.07%). In 2022, Harlan County's real average earnings per job declined by -2.90%

Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Harlan County's real average earnings per job since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022.

During the 1970s, Harlan County's annual real average earnings per job growth rate averaged 4.24%. It averaged -1.84% in the 1980s, -0.39% throughout the 1990s, 2.22% throughout the 2000s, -2.16% during the 2010s, 0.77% thus far this decade (2020-2022).

Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Harlan County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Kentucky and the nation. As the chart reveals, Harlan County's average annual real average earnings per job growth led Kentucky's average throughout the 1970s (4.24% vs. 1.73%), recorded under Kentucky's average in the 1980s (-1.84% vs. 0.10%), lagged Kentucky's average during the 1990s (-0.39% vs. 1.29%), outpaced Kentucky's average throughout the 2000s (2.22% vs. 0.93%), fell below Kentucky's average throughout the 2010s (-2.16% vs. 0.84%), and outgained Kentucky's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.77% vs. 0.33%).

Finally, relative to nationwide real average earnings per job growth trends, Harlan County topped the nation in the 1970s (4.24% vs. 0.89%), fell below the nation during the 1980s (-1.84% vs. 0.71%), lagged the nation in the 1990s (-0.39% vs. 1.68%), surpassed the nation over the 2000s (2.22% vs. 0.72%), fell below the nation over the 2010s (-2.16% vs. 1.01%), and topped the nation over 2020-2022 (0.77% vs. -0.24%).